Gulf LNG Expansion Accelerates as UAE and Qatar Warn of AI-Driven Demand Surge

Gulf energy diplomacy is intensifying as the UAE and Qatar double down on liquefied natural gas (LNG), arguing that the world risks a price spike if producers do not sanction more projects to meet surging demand from Asia, Europe and AI‑driven data‑center growth. At recent events in Abu Dhabi and Doha, energy ministers from both countries framed LNG as a strategic asset that supports domestic transitions and global energy security.​

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told Abu Dhabi Financial Week that the Emirates will continue scaling up LNG output to keep pace with fast‑growing Asian economies and rising global gas consumption. His comments echoed those of Qatar’s energy minister Saad Al Kaabi, who said at the Doha Forum that LNG demand could reach 600–700 million tonnes by 2035, requiring an extra 200–300 million tonnes of supply worldwide. Al Kaabi stressed that since Qatar launched its major expansion in 2017, AI and data‑center loads have emerged as a new, unforeseen driver of electricity demand.​

The International Energy Agency estimates that more than 70 percent of global LNG final investment decisions in 2024 originated in the Middle East, led by Qatar, the UAE and Oman. Over 300 billion cubic metres of new capacity is forecast to come online by 2030, with the Gulf expected to remain central thanks to low upstream costs, integrated supply chains and proximity to both Asian and European buyers. ADNOC’s Ruwais LNG project alone will more than double the company’s liquefaction capacity to roughly 15 million tonnes per year by 2028, backed by 5.5 billion dollars of awarded contracts.​

European policy is a key concern. Al Kaabi again warned that the EU’s proposed Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive could restrict energy supplies if it creates disproportionate liabilities for GCC exporters. GCC states issued a joint statement on December 5 flagging that the rules might hurt investment and long‑term contracts, even as Europe seeks to lock in non‑Russian gas supplies. Gulf producers argue that predictable regulation, not extra compliance burdens, is needed to finance the next wave of LNG.​

Competition is meanwhile heating up as new African suppliers offer more flexible terms and US projects race to market. Gulf producers are responding by taking stakes along the global LNG value chain, using sovereign funds and national oil companies to invest in liquefaction, shipping and regasification assets from Mozambique and Argentina to the US Gulf Coast. With AI and electrification adding structural load to power systems worldwide, the Gulf’s ability to execute its LNG plans on time will be closely watched by utilities, traders and policymakers over the coming decade.